The Outlook in the short term is uncertain

The rise of left-wing Latin American Governments presage a turn to the radical left in the continent Mark the repudiation of foreign policy of the United States in the region Will, for example, lead to a new nationalization of vast reserves of natural gas of Bolivia after the election of Evo Morales as President of the country

These are vital questions, however miss the significance of the rise of someone like Morales, first indigenous head of State elected in Bolivia. His victory marks a step forward in the overall democratization of Latin America. It has a positive meaning in the long term for the economic and social development of the region.

To understand why, it is useful to have a look on the Latin American economic history and development. The societies of the Americas are derived from European conquests on territories occupied by Indian populations, and the racial and ethnic divisions that followed. The United States and the Latin America still manage these historical divisions.

Europeans, who conquered and colonized the Americas after 1492, did not find large blank areas, as they sometimes claim, but land populated by traditional communities. A large part of the indigenous population quickly succumbed to disease and hardships brought by European settlers. Many however survived, as in Bolivia and number of Highlands of the Andes mountain region.

Almost everywhere, these populations have become the lower level of European-led companies. They were then imported millions of African slaves. After emancipation in the 19th century, the African-American communities remained poor and largely deprived of civil rights. Thus, vast inequalities of power, social status and economic welfare have marked the construction of the Americas. Since, Indian, African American and "mestizos" (métis) are beaten for their social, civil and economic rights.

Democracy has been the subject of a bitter struggle in Latin America. Even in the US, which fancies itself a model of democracy, African-Americans were not actually enfranchised until the middle of the 1960's. In Latin America, democracy has also been incomplete, unstable, and often inaccessible to Indian, African-American populations and mixed.

The continent also knows an inequality in terms of power and wealth. A large part of the population remains deprived of land and education. The region has therefore long been vulnerable to populist policies and rebellions, with leaders promising quick gains to the dispossessed via the forfeiture of the property of the elites. They have fought back, often brutally, to protect their property. Policy has often noted more combating violent to the electoral battle, and the property rights were often precarious.

In the US as in Latin America, the turn of events took the form of resistance to the dominant white communities to sharing in the financing of the "human capital" (health and education) with the black and Indian communities. While the companies European had developed States providence for universal access to public health and education services, America's elites have tended to encourage the private sector in terms of health and education, in part reflecting the reluctance of the white populations to fund for social services for other ethnic and racial groups.

Morales ' election in a country where indigenous groups are approximately 55 of the population and 30 métis must be registered in this historical context. The Bolivia is not an isolated case. The transition from military rule to democracy in Latin America over the last twenty years broadened, knocks but constantly, to political beyond the traditional elites and the dominant ethnic groups. Peru, Alejandro Toledo became the first indigenous President.

Over the longer term, the spread of democracy in Latin America promises not only fairer societies, but also the most dynamic economies, through increased public investments in health, education and training. Chronic under-investment in the region in the area of education, particularly in science and technology, is partly responsible for the economic stagnation of the last quarter century. Unlike East Asia and the India, most of Latin America has not known of breakthrough in high-technology industry, instead suffering a period of low GDP growth, macroeconomic instability and the debt crisis.

This may now change, progressively at least. The Bolivia would do well to follow the example of its large neighbor to the East, the Brazil, which experienced a surge of investments in the areas of education and science since its democratization in the 1980s. Increase the level of education also contributes to promote high-tech exports more term.

Of course, the election of Morales also raises many questions. It raises doubts in the short term. The new Government follow a responsible economic policy or will the Bolivia flirt with destabilizing populist measures, as it has done so often in the past again Will Morales renegotiate the laws and contracts governing the vast reserves of natural gas from the Bolivia, as his Government is committed, without making flee urgently needed foreign investment The Bolivia has entered a new era of mass mobilization of its Indian community, which has long suffered but is victorious today. The Outlook in the short term is uncertain. Longer term, however, we can legitimately bet on the economic benefits of democratization.