Evidenced by his incredibly fast retrieval

Evy Hambro has a heavy responsibility: manage in BlackRock funds invested in the mines and the capitalised gold companies in the world, the BGF World Mining (13 billion dollars) and BGF World Gold (approximately $ 7 billion). Its mission was successfully accomplished in 2009, despite the confusing market conditions. The first of its funds, one dedicated to the mining sectors, has appreciated nearly by 104 and the second, dedicated to the gold mines, grew by 49. Markets markets 2010 Echos and asked Evy Hambro to explain his vision of des naturelles Echos 2010 natural voices 2010 requested

Are you concerned about the current prices of the raw pitch

Not at all. The only real risk is that China Decides to tighten too soon the mesh of the credit economic agents. But I am not worried because this country's economy has proven to be the best managed in the world of the last decade. There is no reason that it change. The tightening of loan in China does not halt growth. A new fact has occurred with the last crisis. In previous recessions, it was developed West which depended on the output. This time, it is China that is asserted as the true engine of the return to growth. The speed and effectiveness of implementation of the Chinese stimulus plan made the difference for a prompt recovery in commodity prices. Keep in mind that in the second half of 2009 China accounted for about 40 of the aggregate demand for the vast majority of natural resources. For some of them, the Chinese share exceeded 50.

What role has been speculation in the escalation of prices

It was only the background noise. Nothing appears as excessive in the speculation. I not was surprised by the bright and sudden rebound of courses because it was fully justified by demand trends. The reasons that made possible the long Bull cycle of raw will not disappear for at least a decade yet. China has become a formidable force of attraction. The ten years face us will see this country become a major importer of consumer goods. It is the the most exciting in years to come. The development of a strong internal market will require more resources.

What are your paris in 2010

As the start of the year the illustrates, the volatility of prices will remain very high. Nevertheless, the copper is installed for a long time at historically high levels. Iron ore contract prices should increase by at least 35. Platinum is part of my choices for the year, with the industrial application which resumed and new trackers that will attract financial investors. I am very optimistic on potash. It is the same for gold. The Chinese Central Bank is likely to buy more these days. This is the case for that of the Federation of Russia. On the other hand, I'm suspicious of aluminum, because of its huge stockpile. Its price will be subject to repeated yawing. Mass substitution of nickel by the "pig iron" is the non-ferrous unattractive choice. We are not very exposed to the zinc and lead, it is extremely difficult to invest it because it is essentially a market of recycling.

What do you think the action of Rusal, recently introduced on the stock market, and large mining projects in New Caledonia nickel

I commented not on the introduction in scholarship of Rusal. But I can say is that at this stage we are sous-pondérés in aluminum. Two projects in the Vale and Xstrata in New Caledonia nickel, I consider that they are too expensive and that their profitability will intervene only after a long time.

Mining leaves shaken by the crisis

The mining industry has been less affected than in past crises. It is less fragmented. Therefore, it is more flexible. Evidenced by his incredibly fast retrieval. The relative good health of this activity is also demonstrated by the ability that had most of the companies to raise capital despite the fragility of the debt markets. Some companies have even lifted too much capital in relation to the rise of the prices of their products. The better off are, of course, the diverse firms because for them the cost of capital is much lower. Cash flows tend to realign on those from before the crisis.

Should we infer that the mergers and acquisitions will restart burst

Mergers-acquisitions have continued at a pace throughout 2009. There is no reason that it stops. Large operations are pregnant. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will unite their iron ore. It is a very positive transaction. Only regulators can interfere with it. However, my funds do not play the consolidation because the issues are too difficult to predict. In addition, our investment horizon is stalled on 3-5 years, the time of the construction of a mine.

You are ultimately rather optimistic in 2010...

The year 2010 Miss book disappointment due to the extreme volatility of prices. But it will offer many investment opportunities. That is why, as in 2009, we have decided to remain fully engaged in our paris to capture fully the potential of higher courses.