In 1998 it had peaked at 42 of registrants

The regional election moved painfully in the French electoral landscape. Its fifth edition, March 14 and 21, threat to result in a high rate of abstention finding a campaign excessively nationalized. The region is certainly appreciated by the French. Not less than 86 of them say they are "attached" to their according TNS (1). But they poorly measured the political issue that represents its management despite the powers of this territorial level in public facilities or economic development.

The lack of incarnation of regions imposes this low democratic readability. Only 29 of respondents are able to cite the exact name of the President of the region, said an extensive investigation LH2 (2). A majority of voters express this jurisdiction in only two regions: Poitou-Charentes, where Ségolène Royal is cited by 85 of the interviewees and the Languedoc-Roussillon with 60 for Georges Frêche. Two personalities who for different reasons, gained a national reputation. In Ile-de-France, Jean-Paul Huchon is identified by only 35 of its voters while, in the Nord - Pas-de-Calais, Daniel Percheron, but a historical figure of regional socialism should just 8 of knowledge.

Voters will not determine in March, according to regional policy as they struggle to find. Not more than 25 of them, according to the same study, stated that the main "test" of their vote will be "the balance sheet of the President of the region and its majority". "Policy" pursued by the Government (20) is almost as often cited but it is "the economic and social situation" (45) ahead as the determinant of the next election. The weight of this vote of crisis, a priori unfavourable to the rulers, is particularly heavy among youth and in the popular categories.

The more disabled voters by the morose economic and social context is not necessarily expected to the polls in the spring. The regional elections of 2010 suffers from several disadvantages. It may be a victim of the fatigue of an electoral body called for the fourth consecutive year in the polling stations. For the regional in 2004, the French had not voted since the presidential election of 2002, marked by the dramatic eviction of the left in the second round. These circumstances, added to the high unpopularity of power, had stimulated additional participation. The abstention rate do was lower at 37.9 in the first round. In 1998, it had peaked at 42 of registrants.

For the first time, regional elections will be not linked with another ballot, as was the case in 2004, 1998 and 1992 with the cantonal and in 1986 the legislative. A lonely little conducive to civility in an election considered secondary. Significant indicator, town halls have registered, at the end of the year, that a low number of new registrations on the electoral lists.

Once again, the national context should surdéterminer the regional competition. Not express the diversity of regional issues, all the four elections were dominated by the global report of political forces. In 1986 and 1992, the right had the wind in its sails and won the vast majority of the regions. The symmetrically inverse pattern prevailed in 2004. In 1998, the game was more balanced as a result, in part, of the role played by the national Front arbiter.

On background of unpopularity of Nicolas Sarkozy, perilous for the right considered opinion the true Chief Executive, the regional battle of 2010 is announced. Xavier Bertrand, Secretary General of the UMP, now demonstrated humility ("each won region be victory") after having considered, in September, delight five regions to the left. In the face, the left sometimes yields a triumphalism imprudent. "All we can win," said Martine Aubry, first Secretary of the PS, ignoring threats to some areas led by the left. Example of champagne-Ardenne, gained little by the Socialists in 2004 with a triangular with the FN. The outcome of the regional games will depend generally more electoral architecture than the merit of the outgoing Executive.